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Julia Galef - The Sunk Costs Fallacy

Julia Galef - The Sunk Costs Fallacy

(2:50) People often behave irrationally. President of the Center for Applied Rationality Julia Galef describes the "sunk costs fallacy", which is often not so obvious in the real world.

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Samsgimp Samsgimp (1461 days ago)
I assumed that she was going to conclude with the current trajectory of global finance, banking, economic trends, public finance, and capitalism in its current form as having to re-evaluate very soon. the words 'room' and 'elephant' come to mind...?
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I assumed that she was going to conclude with the current trajectory of global finance, banking, economic trends, public finance, and capitalism in its current form as having to re-evaluate very soon. the words 'room' and 'elephant' come to mind...?
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Guest: LondonBoy (1461 days ago)
Moral of the story - GIVE UP, IF THE GOING GETS TOUGH!
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Moral of the story - GIVE UP, IF THE GOING GETS TOUGH!
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Guest: (1461 days ago)
Don't be affected with what you did, when you decide what is best moving forward.
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Don't be affected with what you did, when you decide what is best moving forward.
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Guest: Th (1458 days ago)
I didn't get where I am today by giving up every time things got tough. Sunk Costs Fallacy? No, just weak willed.
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I didn't get where I am today by giving up every time things got tough. Sunk Costs Fallacy? No, just weak willed.
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Guest: (1458 days ago)
Latest comment: It's not about giving up, it's about understanding what is better for you at present point, regardless of what happened before. It's basic economic thinking.
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Latest comment: It's not about giving up, it's about understanding what is better for you at present point, regardless of what happened before. It's basic economic thinking.
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guest123456789 guest123456789 (1461 days ago)
She might have been better off finishing her Phd and then getting a second one. Someone with two Phd's might be more marketable than someone with one even if the second Phd is not in the field she is working in. It shows she is more rounded an individual.
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She might have been better off finishing her Phd and then getting a second one. Someone with two Phd's might be more marketable than someone with one even if the second Phd is not in the field she is working in. It shows she is more rounded an individual.
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glortman glortman (1461 days ago)
A PhD is actually a poor career choice: right now (in Canada at least) PhD graduates must secure and work through 3-4 post doctoral positions (1-2) years each before landing a permanent position. At 5-8 years per doctorate, you might be in school for as long as 16 years, and for the hell of getting the degree, you have to have a bigger sense of commitment than just the possibility of expanding your job choices. Further the point of a PhD is not being well-rounded, but having a remarkably tight focus. Yes, PhDs typically do 'comprehensive tests' that require a broader knowledge of their overall field, but nonetheless, it could hardly be called 'broad'. Last, having expertise in 2 fields is not always an advantage unless you are hoping to unite the two fields, and can find an employer or university that thinks likewise. It is also remarkably difficult to have sufficient expertise in two fields to even get into two different subject areas. Without a double major in your undergrad, you typically would not have the breadth and grounding necessary to enter the second program.
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A PhD is actually a poor career choice: right now (in Canada at least) PhD graduates must secure and work through 3-4 post doctoral positions (1-2) years each before landing a permanent position. At 5-8 years per doctorate, you might be in school for as long as 16 years, and for the hell of getting the degree, you have to have a bigger sense of commitment than just the possibility of expanding your job choices. Further the point of a PhD is not being well-rounded, but having a remarkably tight focus. Yes, PhDs typically do 'comprehensive tests' that require a broader knowledge of their overall field, but nonetheless, it could hardly be called 'broad'. Last, having expertise in 2 fields is not always an advantage unless you are hoping to unite the two fields, and can find an employer or university that thinks likewise. It is also remarkably difficult to have sufficient expertise in two fields to even get into two different subject areas. Without a double major in your undergrad, you typically would not have the breadth and grounding necessary to enter the second program.
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guest123456789 guest123456789 (1460 days ago)
I'm going to have to disagree here. To be in the PhD program, you must already have a masters in that field. She stated she was already that far into it. It is, therefore, my suggestion that she complete her PhD and get that certification. Then, she can change her career choice if she wants (she may have to go back to getting her BA or BS and then her Masters before being accepted into the new PhD program depending on how different the two fields of study are). This way, she has two PhD so if her primary career choice takes a nose dive, she has a second one as a backup. It's best to not put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your knowledge and your experience for the best chance of staying employed throughout your working life.
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I'm going to have to disagree here. To be in the PhD program, you must already have a masters in that field. She stated she was already that far into it. It is, therefore, my suggestion that she complete her PhD and get that certification. Then, she can change her career choice if she wants (she may have to go back to getting her BA or BS and then her Masters before being accepted into the new PhD program depending on how different the two fields of study are). This way, she has two PhD so if her primary career choice takes a nose dive, she has a second one as a backup. It's best to not put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your knowledge and your experience for the best chance of staying employed throughout your working life.
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Guest: NoMSPhD (1460 days ago)
Simple fact: No you do not need a Masters degree to enter a PhD program. Put that into your formula.
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Simple fact: No you do not need a Masters degree to enter a PhD program. Put that into your formula.
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guest123456789 guest123456789 (1460 days ago)
Well, that's yes and no. When you enroll into your university for a given field of study, you can enroll to get a terminal degree with the expectations of only getting your PhD. You will, however, still need to take all the same courses as someone with a Masters plus more for your terminal degree. It's like saying you can get a BA/BS without first getting an AA/AS. To get your BA/BS, you will still need to take all the same classes required by the AA/AS but you do not have to get the physical certification of the AA/AS if you do not want to. So, in summary, yes you can just get the PhD without any of the other undergraduate degrees but you will not be taking fewer classes by doing so.
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Well, that's yes and no. When you enroll into your university for a given field of study, you can enroll to get a terminal degree with the expectations of only getting your PhD. You will, however, still need to take all the same courses as someone with a Masters plus more for your terminal degree. It's like saying you can get a BA/BS without first getting an AA/AS. To get your BA/BS, you will still need to take all the same classes required by the AA/AS but you do not have to get the physical certification of the AA/AS if you do not want to. So, in summary, yes you can just get the PhD without any of the other undergraduate degrees but you will not be taking fewer classes by doing so.
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glortman glortman (1460 days ago)
guest123456789, I agree with all of your premises, but not your conclusion. In Canada the return on investment for a PhD is actually lower than a college diploma (skilled trade) when you consider years of study, lost years of income, final income, possible student debt and other factors. A PhD does not guarantee you a job, so even one MA/PhD is a long, risky investment. I would also agree with you that you are better to not put all of your eggs in one basket. I have a colleague who is talented, smart, has had several high profile post doc positions and an impressive list of publications in top journals. She is unable to land a research or academic job. When she went to a career counselor the advice she was given? 'Get a college diploma'.
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guest123456789, I agree with all of your premises, but not your conclusion. In Canada the return on investment for a PhD is actually lower than a college diploma (skilled trade) when you consider years of study, lost years of income, final income, possible student debt and other factors. A PhD does not guarantee you a job, so even one MA/PhD is a long, risky investment. I would also agree with you that you are better to not put all of your eggs in one basket. I have a colleague who is talented, smart, has had several high profile post doc positions and an impressive list of publications in top journals. She is unable to land a research or academic job. When she went to a career counselor the advice she was given? 'Get a college diploma'.
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guest123456789 guest123456789 (1460 days ago)
The first point was the she was close to getting her PhD and decided to have a career change. So my discussion was not really about if a PhD is worth the investment as much as it was about her finishing her first investment before considering it a complete loss as she is recommending as "The Sunk Costs Fallacy." If I had the same situation come up in my life, I would finish that first PhD with as much time already be invested and then get the second one too. Regarding if the PhD is worth it or not, I might agree with you. There are people with nothing more than a high school diploma making more than people with a masters degree. Many of the richest people in the world (like Bill Gates) are college dropouts.
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The first point was the she was close to getting her PhD and decided to have a career change. So my discussion was not really about if a PhD is worth the investment as much as it was about her finishing her first investment before considering it a complete loss as she is recommending as "The Sunk Costs Fallacy." If I had the same situation come up in my life, I would finish that first PhD with as much time already be invested and then get the second one too. Regarding if the PhD is worth it or not, I might agree with you. There are people with nothing more than a high school diploma making more than people with a masters degree. Many of the richest people in the world (like Bill Gates) are college dropouts.
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